By Pishtaz | 2025-01-07

Leaked Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) documents show Iran is facing its gravest strategic crisis in decades following the Syrian regime's collapse, with the loss of a key ally and billions in squandered military investments.

Internal IRGC reports and intelligence assessments reveal that the Iranian regime's Syrian intervention severely depleted Tehran's military and economic resources while failing to keep Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in power.

Over the course of a decade, the IRGC deployed thousands of fighters and commanders in Syria, with 200 killed in combat operations between January and October 2024 alone, according to Iran Focus.

The deployment severely drained Iranian military capabilities, creating vulnerabilities in the regime's regional and domestic security network, as the financial toll of the intervention reached staggering proportions.

Leaked Iranian foreign ministry documents reveal that Syria owes Iran approximately $50 billion in aid and oil credit, including $11 billion in oil supplies provided between 2012 and 2021, according to Iran International.

Intelligence sources suggest these figures represent only a fraction of Iran's total investment, with billions more spent on military operations and support infrastructure.

Rifts within IRGC

The failed Syria strategy has created deep rifts within the IRGC leadership, the Telegraph reported, with senior officials publicly trading blame over their failure to protect Iranian interests.

IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani faces criticism for alleged inaction as the Syrian regime was toppled, while multiple sources report increasing dissent within the IRGC's ranks.

Beyond Iran's borders, elements of Lebanese Hizbullah have grown increasingly disillusioned, accusing their Iranian supervisors of treating them as replaceable "cannon fodder," according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

This deteriorating relationship further weakens the Iranian regime's regional and domestic authority, as its costly -- and now failed -- military campaign continues to spark public anger within Iran, where 30% of the population lives in poverty.

Former Iranian MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh captured public sentiment in a viral social media post celebrating al-Assad's fall, declaring "No one will be able to waste Iran's dollars for maintaining a spiderweb anymore."

The collapse of the Syrian regime effectively writes off billions in Iranian investment and closes a crucial economic corridor for sanctions evasion.

And the crisis continues to deepen, with Center for Strategic and International Studies senior adviser Norman Roule telling the Wall Street Journal it "represents a strategic blow of historic proportions."