By Fariba Raad | 2024-12-14

Iran faces a demographic crisis that could see its population of 87 million plummet by half to 42 million by century's end, as the Islamic Republic prioritizes its foreign agenda over domestic welfare.

The regime's population policies have shifted dramatically over the decades.

During the Iran-Iraq war, authorities encouraged a baby boom to boost workforce numbers and military recruitment.

After the conflict ended, the government reversed course, promoting two-child families.

By 2012, facing negative population growth, Iranian leader Ali Khamenei urged couples to have more children -- an appeal that has failed amid the crushing economic conditions that much of the population face.

"Drastic changes in population policy have harmed the regime" and the credibility of its leadership, ideals, values and slogans, Rasanah International Institute for Iranian Studies Mohammed al-Sulami wrote for Arab News.

"The regime's population policy has always shifted based on the regime's and senior officials' interests and desires."

The economic reality on the ground tells a stark story.

A recent Iranian Parliament Research Center report shows poverty rates reached 30.1% in 2023, with about one-third of Iranians unable to meet basic needs.

These rates have remained largely unchanged for five years despite government welfare policies, according to Iran Wire.

Yet the Iranian regime remains one of the world's top military spenders, and in November announced it was increasing its military budget by "200%," with a significant percentage going to its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Misplaced priorities

With official inflation exceeding 40% in 2023 and record housing and food costs, many middle-class couples cannot afford to have children.

"My husband and I have been married for 10 years and yearn to have children," said a 34-year-old Tehran schoolteacher who asked that her name be withheld.

"We both work hard, but we can barely support ourselves and pay the rent, let alone manage the expenses of having a child," she said.

The teacher said she commutes 30km daily to the rented suburban flat she shares with her husband, also a teacher.

"This is a government that only follows its ideology," London-based political analyst Cyrus Nabili told Pishtaz. "It has no interest, no concern, no attachment and no sense of responsibility or accountability to its people."

"Society has lost its traditional structure that for millennia stood on the pillars of family and children," he added. "Injustice and corruption have become a norm where its traditional values are lost."

Yet Tehran continues to prioritize regional military expansion and proxy forces across the Middle East, while on the domestic front, economic hardships remain largely unaddressed.

"As long as the government's policies remain unchanged, the decline in all aspects of life in Iran will continue," Nabili said.