By Pishtaz | 2024-12-11

The rapid collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has left one of its key backers, the Islamic Republic, in a quandary, as it faces the loss of its investments and influence in Syria.

The Iranian regime has long sought to milk Syria's economy as it faces its own economic woes, and has attempted to control strategic parts of Syria in order to expand its regional influence.

The fall of the Syrian regime puts these ambitions in jeopardy, and deals a blow to the so-called "axis of resistance" of Iran-aligned militias across the region.

Previous estimates have put Iranian investments in Syria at well over $105 billion. By mid 2021, Iran had spent more than $30 billion in Syria, al-Sharq Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies researcher Fathi al-Sayed said at the time, noting even then that this would be "very difficult" to recoup.

Throughout the Syrian conflict, "Iran devoted a great deal of blood and treasure to propping up the Assad regime, only to watch its investment fail in a matter of days as city after city fell to Syrian rebels," the Washington Post reported.

"But Tehran hasn’t only lost a client; it has seen its ability to project power, key to its own security, upended," it said.

Some Iranians questioned the regime's decision to spend billions on a network that fell apart so quickly, it noted, while one analyst said the Islamic Republic needed to "rethink" its "strategy of proxies."

Cutting its losses

As the leader of its client state was toppled, and reportedly ferried to Russia, the Iranian regime signaled its resentment and frustration at al-Assad, and attempted to cut its losses.

In a December 8 interview on state television, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi complained that al-Assad had "never asked" for Tehran's aid against the Tahrir al-Sham offensive.

"We were never asked for help," he said, adding that it was the duty of the Syrian regime's army to counter the offensive.

On December 3, Araghchi had said Iran would "study" any request for troops from al-Assad. And on December 6 he said it would continue to support Syria with "whatever is needed and requested by the Syrian government."

But it appears that request never came -- or that it came too late.

For now, the Iranian regime appears to be trying to cut its losses and appease the new rulers, especially as its military advisors are "still present" in Syria, AFP reported.

Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran would adopt "appropriate approaches" towards Syria in accordance with the behavior of "effective actors" in Damascus, and expects "friendly" relations to continue.