Politics
Cracks emerge between IRGC, allied Iraqi militias after fall of Syrian regime
Iran-aligned Iraqi militias are reevaluating their relationship with the Iranian regime in the aftermath of the Syrian regime's downfall.
By Anas al-Bar |
Recent developments in Syria reflect the decline in trust between the Iranian regime and its proxies, as militias aligned with or controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reevaluate their alliances with Tehran.
Following the assassination in Tehran of Hamas political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh, doubts began to surface among "axis of resistance" factions regarding Iran's ability to protect its major proxies.
These escalated following the deaths of Lebanese Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, his successor, Hashem Safieddine, and the party’s most prominent leaders.
With the recent exodus, to Moscow, of Hizbullah's ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the leaders of Iran-aligned factions appear increasingly uncomfortable.
"Iraqi faction leaders do not feel safe today," political analyst Tareq al-Shammari told Pishtaz.
Many have become convinced that the Iranian regime's claims about its commitment to helping and protecting its allies are "just lies," and that its vaunted intelligence and military capabilities are in fact weak, he said.
Some also have concerns they may have become "sacrificial lambs" for the Iranian regime, to ensure it remains in power.
Internal review
Militia leaders in Iraq, who previously fought alongside al-Assad, have tried to maintain a calm tone regarding the opposition takeover in Syria.
During recent meetings, the leaders of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kataib Hizbullah, and the Badr Organization reportedly agreed on the need to be patient in taking positions and making decisions.
This indicates a review is taking place that may not result in a radical change in their relationship with Iran, but rather seeks to avoid a "worst case scenario," al-Shammari said.
Most of the militia leaders chose "not to engage militarily" in the Syrian regime's demise, as they felt they were being led to an incinerator, he added.
"There are those who are gradually becoming convinced of Iran's duplicity and deviousness, and that it does not believe in the existence of permanent allies or partners, and that the alliance with it is not crucial as it claims," he said.
This alliance has become "fragile and devoid of trust," he said.
Despite the current climate of unease, however, al-Shammari said he does not think all the Iraqi militias will stray far from the Iranian will.
"The relationship of some of them with the Tehran regime remains a relationship of leader and follower, based on a religious ideology, based on obedience" to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, he said.
The militias' outward calm therefore may be interpreted as preparation for a new phase of regional interventions and roles drawn for them by the Iranian regime, aimed at obstructing the efforts for peace and stability in the region, he said.
I have carefully reviewed the comments and I can say with certainty that both the article and the commenters below it (of course, not the few with spelling errors) are only Persian-speaking and are not Israeli or affiliated, and are not Iranian at all.
Dear friends and zealous Iranians; Iran is powerful, but it does not have a serious media and is usually defeated in the media.
America will be destroyed, Israel is nothing for us.
With these flimsy articles, you thought that the Islamic Republic of Iran, like Syria, is a terrorist political system that achieved an apparent victory with the media war between Erdogan, Israel, and the United States. With the crimes that the terrorist group Tahrir al-Sham is committing in Syria, it will soon see its destruction. Of course, with the uprising of the people and youth of Syria itself, the terrorist group Tahrir al-Sham, the trained dog of Israel and America and the hypocritical traitors, will be destroyed. Keep this as a keepsake from us, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The resistance forces are not Iran's proxy forces. As long as America, Western countries, and their child-killing regime, the barbaric Israel, plunder the region and occupy the countries of the region, these forces will stand and fight against them even with empty hands, because the era of plundering nations is over, and the youth of the region is fighting against the barbaric West armed with nuclear weapons, and they fear no one but God and rely on God.
To hell with Jews and the enemy of the Shia.
Who did Ali’s forces fight with in the battle of the Camel? If you are telling the truth that you believe in Ali (PBUH) and that after the Messenger of God, he is also one of the people under the verse of purification, which even Wahhabis admit; then you should either accept Ali or the person for whom you sympathized with here! Which one do you believe in? Were those who slander the Messenger of God (attributing lust and debauchery while one person asked the Prophet to marry his daughter and another person married his widowed daughter, whom some people refused to marry, to the Prophet), fair and just? How do they respond to the jealousy of one of the wives (how do they prove that she was pure) of the Messenger of God (whose counter-responses were given by the Prophet to those responses) towards the other wife of the Messenger of God, namely Khadijah bint Khuwaylid? Despite the aforementioned flaw, how and why do some of the wives of the Messenger of God fall under the verse of purification? Surah At-Tahrim, verse 4, tells of two of the wives of the Messenger of God: If you both turn to Allah in repentance, your hearts are indeed inclined (to truth); but if you support each other against him (the Prophet), then verily Allah is his protector, and Gabriel, and the righteous among the believers, and after that, the angels will also be his helpers. {Does this not prove their infallibility and does it not also prove the impurity of some of them?} When Aisha was asked about the posit
Iran only uses other militias to keep its own government alive as long as it benefits it, then turns its back on them when they become like a burned-out pawn, and that's the law of the clerical regime.
It is very good.
An English proverb says: Nothing lasts forever.
Only Iran, like a roaring lion, is ready to expel the entire genocidal Zionist government, on the orders of the leader of the Islamic and Shiite nation.
Regarding the political analysis of the Iranian regime's relations with the IRGC proxies, it is absolutely correct that there is a lack of trust, but they keep their face as protecting each other. In my opinion, if Iran enters the war, everyone except the Houthis in Yemen will back down, and this means the same war trap that is planned to weaken Iran's military power.
Finally, with the help of God, nature, and friends, it was done.
In my opinion, if Iran is pressured militarily, it will sacrifice all of its proxy groups, and there is even a possibility that Iran will betray them.
With the events that have occurred, time is needed to clear up some of the ambiguities. It is too early to judge.