By Anas al-Bar | 2024-12-27

Recent developments in Syria reflect the decline in trust between the Iranian regime and its proxies, as militias aligned with or controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reevaluate their alliances with Tehran.

Following the assassination in Tehran of Hamas political bureau head Ismail Haniyeh, doubts began to surface among "axis of resistance" factions regarding Iran's ability to protect its major proxies.

These escalated following the deaths of Lebanese Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, his successor, Hashem Safieddine, and the party’s most prominent leaders.

With the recent exodus, to Moscow, of Hizbullah's ally, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the leaders of Iran-aligned factions appear increasingly uncomfortable.

"Iraqi faction leaders do not feel safe today," political analyst Tareq al-Shammari told Pishtaz.

Many have become convinced that the Iranian regime's claims about its commitment to helping and protecting its allies are "just lies," and that its vaunted intelligence and military capabilities are in fact weak, he said.

Some also have concerns they may have become "sacrificial lambs" for the Iranian regime, to ensure it remains in power.

Internal review

Militia leaders in Iraq, who previously fought alongside al-Assad, have tried to maintain a calm tone regarding the opposition takeover in Syria.

During recent meetings, the leaders of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kataib Hizbullah, and the Badr Organization reportedly agreed on the need to be patient in taking positions and making decisions.

This indicates a review is taking place that may not result in a radical change in their relationship with Iran, but rather seeks to avoid a "worst case scenario," al-Shammari said.

Most of the militia leaders chose "not to engage militarily" in the Syrian regime's demise, as they felt they were being led to an incinerator, he added.

"There are those who are gradually becoming convinced of Iran's duplicity and deviousness, and that it does not believe in the existence of permanent allies or partners, and that the alliance with it is not crucial as it claims," he said.

This alliance has become "fragile and devoid of trust," he said.

Despite the current climate of unease, however, al-Shammari said he does not think all the Iraqi militias will stray far from the Iranian will.

"The relationship of some of them with the Tehran regime remains a relationship of leader and follower, based on a religious ideology, based on obedience" to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, he said.

The militias' outward calm therefore may be interpreted as preparation for a new phase of regional interventions and roles drawn for them by the Iranian regime, aimed at obstructing the efforts for peace and stability in the region, he said.