By Anas al-Bar | 2025-05-03

Iranian leader Ali Khamenei has issued a fatwa directing Iraqi proxies to halt destabilizing operations, in a revealing display of power that analysts believe is a mere tactical pause in the regime's broader strategy of regional subversion.

The directive, issued in the autumn of 2024, supersedes an earlier fatwa that had urged Iraqi militias to join the so-called "war of support" for Hamas aimed at escalating regional confrontation, Asharq al-Awsat reported.

In the new ruling, Khamenei advises prioritizing damage control -- guidance that certain militia leaders interpreted as a binding religious decree, it said.

Khamenei's calculated retreat can be seen as a step towards self-preservation after recent assassinations targeted the leadership of Iran's number one proxy, Hizbullah, strategic analyst Tariq al-Shammari told Pishtaz.

The Iranian leader "certainly does not want the leaders of the Iraqi armed factions to meet the same fate as their counterparts in Hizbullah," he said.

This would compound the Iranian regime's losses and lead to the "total collapse" of its so-called "axis of resistance," which it has supported for decades with weapons and money, he explained.

Khamenei's fatwa seeks to "prevent Iraqi militias from being targeted to preserve what remains of his regime's external influence," al-Shammari said.

Meanwhile, the Iranian leader seeks to maintain these groups as a "pressure card" to serve "the regime's interests, defend it, and serve as its last line of defense," he said.

Temporary restraint

The new ruling comes amid ongoing nuclear program negotiations, and is pointedly intended to send "false messages of reassurance to the world," al-Shammari said.

But the regime's temporary restraint appears "aimed at buying time and catching a breath" before launching new campaigns to incite regional chaos and violence, he cautioned.

The directive also may seek to "absorb the mounting anger among Iraqis over the militias' efforts to drag their country into conflict and to circumvent calls to disarm and restructure these groups," he said.

He noted that the fatwa "ultimately demonstrates the close relationship between the Iranian regime, represented by its highest religious and political authority [Khamenei] and the proxies who obey only his orders and instructions."

For the Iraqi militias, this relationship amounts to direct foreign control.

"It does not matter to the proxies whether they engage in any action that contradicts their country's constitution, laws and national decisions, or harms the interests of their people and threatens their security, as long as it pleases the supreme leader [Khamenei] and serves Iranian interests," al-Shammari said.