By Pishtaz | 2025-02-04

The Iranian regime risks new sanctions as it ramps up its nuclear enrichment program, at a time when it is already weakened by collapsing regional alliances and mounting economic challenges.

Iran's nuclear program has expanded "dramatically" since 2021, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 22, AFP reported.

Modifications at Iran's Fordo facility will enhance the rate of production of uranium enriched to 60% purity -- approaching the 90% threshold needed for weapons development, according to the IAEA's December assessment.

"I think this is a clear indication of an acceleration. They're pressing the gas pedal," Grossi said.

The IAEA calculates Iran's monthly production of highly enriched uranium will surge sevenfold to exceed 34kg.

In December, Britain, Germany and France noted that Tehran has increased its uranium stockpile to "unprecedented levels" without "any credible civilian justification."

"If Iran accelerates in this direction, it will only bring down further sanctions and encourage the international community to take Iran's nuclear program off the table," US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jim Risch wrote on X.

"Tehran's threats of uranium enrichment are only meant to distract from the fact that Iran is at its weakest point in decades," he said in the January 23 post.

US-led sanctions have targeted the Iranian regime's illicit sale of oil -- its primary means of funding regional proxies -- with exports plunging by more than 615,000 barrels per day over the past eight years, per War on the Rocks.

Regional alliances unravel

The Iranian regime's nuclear acceleration comes as its regional alliances unravel and its influence erodes.

Setbacks include the fall of ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the weakening of the regime's premier proxy force, Lebanese Hizbullah, geopolitical analyst Farzin Zandi wrote for War on the Rocks.

These external challenges coincide with severe internal problems and public dissatisfaction.

"Iran's economic dysfunction and political disarray prevented it from building and sustaining resilience," Zandi said.

Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) fell to approximately $262 billion in 2020, its lowest level since 2006, according to the Iranian Parliament Research Center, and its share of global trade has plummeted to 0.2%.

Severe trade restrictions have made Iran one of the world's most constrained markets, ranking 170th out of 177 countries surveyed in 2022, with an economic freedom score of 42.4, according to the Heritage Foundation.

Internal power struggles, where government factions unite only in mutual opposition, have meanwhile prevented Iran from leveraging its regional presence for lasting economic advantages, Zandi said.