By Maryam Manzoori | 2025-03-24

The Iranian regime's efforts to pursue closer ties with Serbia, a landlocked country in the Balkans, have raised concerns about its plans to expand its influence into southeastern Europe.

Analysts warn that the Islamic Republic's expansionist agenda -- through its policy of "exporting the revolution" of 1979 -- been harmful to other nations and is likely to have a negative impact on Serbia as well.

The Islamic Republic and Serbia have taken steps to forge defense ties despite their opposing positions during the Bosnian War of the 1990s.

In recent months, the two nations have engaged in high-level diplomatic exchanges, with Serbian Ambassador Damir Kovacevic meeting in December with Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh.

Iranian Ambassador Rashid Hassanpour and Serbia's Defense Minister Nebojša Stefanović have held parallel discussions on military training.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has submitted a comprehensive defense cooperation treaty to the Iranian parliament (Majles), per the hardline Tasnim news agency.

The treaty covers security policy, military-economic ventures, military-technical cooperation, training and military medicine, according to Tasnim.

The Iranian regime's strategy involves leveraging diplomatic and defense relationships to extend its influence, combining soft power with military deals.

On the one hand, Tehran waived visa requirements for Serbian citizens and promoted cultural exchanges through its embassy in Belgrade.

On the other, a Serbian delegation ordered 20,000 Shahed-136 drones from Tehran in August 2023, according to EttoBA.

"Iran has shown ambitions to expand its influence in the Balkans and has found Serbia as a partner. Iran is targeting the security sector to sell weapons to Serbia," Balkan regional outlet The Geopost reported.

Expansionist ambitions

Kosovo's Security Council has expressed grave concerns about Serbia's possession of Iranian-made drones, citing "aggressive behavior" along their shared border.

Through its support of armed proxies in the Middle East, including the Houthis in Yemen and Lebanese Hizbullah, Tehran has demonstrated its willingness to interfere in the sovereign affairs of other nations.

This adds to regional concerns about its true intentions in the Balkans.

"The Islamic Republic's 46-year history shows that this regime squeezes itself into any global vacuum it finds," Bahman, an Iranian-Swedish dentist in Belgrade, told Pishtaz.

"They show Iranian movies and hold Persian cultural events in Bosnia, but behind the scenes they might be after influencing the people, media or even creating proxy groups, the way they did in Iraq and Yemen," he said.

"Such arrangements could provide Iran with strategic footholds beyond the Middle East."

Tehran sees the Balkans as a crucial target for its expansion, analysts said.

"By establishing a base in these small countries, the Islamic Republic could quickly activate militant groups or run operations in Europe," Bucharest-based international affairs doctoral student Chloe Poorkazemi told Pishtaz.