By Nohad Topalian | 2023-11-09

BEIRUT -- Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah is slated to deliver a second speech on Saturday (November 11), less than a week after breaking his silence on the Israel-Hamas war to praise Hamas while maintaining distance from it.

But unlike his much-anticipated first speech, which drew attention in Lebanon, the region and beyond amid fears of a widening of the conflict, this one is not expected to draw a large audience, analysts told Pishtaz affiliate Al-Fassel.

"There won't be many listeners to his new speech," said Lebanese Center for Research and Consulting director Hassan Qutb, noting that Nasrallah "lost a lot of credibility" after the previous diatribe he delivered.

Nasrallah's November 3 speech, delivered after close to a month of strategic silence as speculation intensified, was timed to have maximum impact, he said.

Yet the speech was a disappointment, Qutb said, "because he expressly admitted that his 'axis' did not know in advance about 'al-Aqsa Flood'," the name Hamas gave to its October 7 terrorist attack on Israel.

On that date, the Iran-backed terrorist group attacked Israel by land, air and sea from Gaza, killing at least 1,400 people, mostly civilians, taking more than 200 hostages, and sparking the ongoing war with Israel.

Nasrallah -- the self-acknowledged leader of the so-called "axis of resistance" -- distanced his party from the attack, which he claimed Hamas carried out in absolute secrecy without the knowledge of its allies.

The Hizbullah chief's speech was long and rambling, Qutb said, "and did not include any position that would shake up the region or a decision commensurate with the amount of media hype that preceded his speech."

Nasrallah's latest statements "starkly contradict his previous speeches, which focused on the unity of arenas ("axis of resistance"), by saying that the decision to fight was exclusively Palestinian," he said.

They also undermine Nasrallah's assertion "that he is the master of his position," Qutb said, and reveal that Hizbullah's role is dictated by the Iranian regime's priorities.

"Nasrallah settled for issuing statements to save face," he said.

"This confirms that he and his militia party are an obedient tool in the hands of Iran, which now fears involving Hizbullah in any internal or regional war across Lebanon's southern borders."

Nasrallah serves Iran's agenda

"Nasrallah works for the interests of Iran and implements its agenda in the region," writer and political analyst Najm al-Hashem told Al-Fassel.

Nasrallah has long stated "that he is a soldier in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)" and subscribes to the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist), which calls for allegiance to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei.

"From this standpoint, it can be said that everything Nasrallah has said and will say still hinges on to what extent his positions serve Iran," al-Hashem said.

The Iranian regime "solely decides whether his words serve its interest and moves forward accordingly, and drops or freezes any of his positions that do not serve its interest," he added.

The Hizbullah chief "does not wait for developments in Gaza to decide whether to enter the war or not, but rather what Iran decides," he said.

"Nasrallah's failure to follow through on his threats, at least to this day, is a contradiction in what he says, and evidence of his inability to follow through on them," al-Hashem said.

This is because Nasrallah and his party, as he has said himself on previous occasions, "are soldiers of Wilayat al-Faqih and Iran," he said.

'In the hands of Iran alone'

Above all else, political writer Simon Abou Fadel told Al-Fassel, Nasrallah "is a criminal who kills his people and innocent civilians, and washes his hands of killing them."

The slogans he has repeated for years "are bombastic statements" intended to rally his base that are "tied to Iran's interests," he said.

Nasrallah's previous statements "hinge on Iran and the extent of its seriousness in supporting Hamas through Hizbullah," Abou Fadel said.

But his talk about the "unity of arenas" is largely empty, as evidenced by his November 3 speech, he said, which alleged the October 7 terrorist attack "was limited to Hamas only and without any coordination with Nasrallah."

The Hizbullah chief "has always said that he is the leader of the 'axis of resistance,' and it turned out that the 'axis of resistance' is outside his control and in the hands of Iran alone," Abou Fadel said.