By Mazdak Razi | 2023-09-20

The Iranian regime recently ratcheted up its threats against Iranian Kurdish dissident groups based in Iraq, issuing an ultimatum for them to disarm.

The ultimatum warned these groups that they would face dire consequences if they did not disarm by Tuesday (September 19), and threatened that the deadline would not be extended.

The Iranian regime has long labelled the groups as "terrorists" and "separatists" and has repeatedly attacked them on Iraqi soil, killing dozens of civilians.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted the groups' bases with artillery and rockets, with the last major attack taking place in November.

Since the "Women, Life, Freedom" protest movement started last September in Iran, the regime has been accusing the dissident Kurdish groups of fomenting unrest in Iran and threatening the country's security.

On the heels of Tehran's September 11 ultimatum, Iraqi foreign minister Fuad Hussein travelled to Iran to discuss the Kurdish groups' conditions and safety.

Iran and Iraq signed a border security agreement in March, which Iraqi authorities described as a means to secure the border with Iraq's Kurdish region.

In a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abollahian in Tehran on September 13, Hussein said that based on the security agreement, anti-regime Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq will be relocated away from Iran's borders.

According to the Iraqi constitution, the security of neighboring countries is important to Baghdad, he said.

"Based on our constitution, the areas bordering Iran will be de-militarized and camps [for the anti-regime Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq] will be established under the United Nations' supervision," he said.

"Since relations between our two countries are very deep, we expect that should a problem arise, it would be solved with dialogue and diplomacy," he said.

"We will not use methods such as bombing and military invasion, which undermine Iraq's independence."

Conflict with Kurds

The Islamic Republic has had conflicts with Kurdish groups -- inside and outside Iran -- since its inception, Türkiye-based Iranian political expert Farzaneh Morovvati told Pishtaz.

"By taking advantage of the weakness of Iraq's central government, the Iranian government wants to deal a blow to the Iranian Kurdish parties based in Iraq, which is why it resorts to threats and ultimatums," she said.

A day prior to the Iraqi foreign minister's trip to Tehran, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News published pictures of IRGC military equipment being transferred to the northwestern borders of Iran.

And in the days leading up to the protest movement's first anniversary, residents of Iran's Kurdish cities were faced with tight security measures and heavy law enforcement presence.

The ongoing protests in Iran started with the September 16, 2022, death of a young Kurdish woman, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, in "morality police" custody.

Anti-regime protests were staged in most Kurdish cities after her death, and this deeply concerns the regime, making it fearful of the Kurds, US-based Iranian political analyst Ramin Darvish noted.

"Two days after Mahsa Amini was killed, a number of dissident Kurdish parties called for a strike, after which shopkeepers and merchants stopped working and went on strike in many cities of Iran's Kordestan province," he told Pishtaz.

IRGC's repeated attacks

A few leaders of dissident Iranian Kurdish parties based in Iraq have repeatedly rejected the Islamic Republic's accusations that they are disrupting security, stressing they are engaged only in political activities.

Meanwhile, the IRGC has been attacking their bases for years.

In September 2018, the IRGC attacked the Kurdistan Democratic Party's headquarters in the Iraqi town of Koy Sanjaq, killing 16 members of the party's leadership and injuring some 40 people.

Some analysts say the Iranian regime has been cavalier about threatening to attack Kurdish bases because it has close ties with Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

Al-Sudani came to power last year with the support of an Iran-aligned coalition.

"The Islamic Republic wants to take advantage of Iraq's political instability to fulfill its wishes as long as there is someone in Iraq at the head of the government who has close ties to Tehran," Morovvati told Pishtaz.

"Let's keep in mind that in the current situation, the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq is completely dependent on Baghdad and is in a weak position amid the cessation of oil exports" to the Kurdish region, she said.

This is why the president of Iraq's Kurdish region, Nechirvan Barzani, met with the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad prior to Hussein's trip to Tehran, she said.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan leader Bafel Talabani also has visited Tehran, she added.

The relocation of anti-regime Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq "may benefit the Iranian government for a period of time," according to political analyst Darvish.

But "the decisive opposition of the majority of the Iranian people, including Kurds, to this government is what terrifies the Islamic Republic, and will ultimately bring it to an end," he said.