By Pishtaz | 2026-05-13

The Islamic Republic faces an intense internal power struggle driven by war, leadership transition, and escalating external pressure challenging its fragile authority.

Since the death of Ali Khamenei and the elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei, the political system has fractured into competing power centers unable to define coherent national strategy.

At the center stands the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), led by Ahmad Vahidi, whose expanding dominance is rapidly eroding civilian authority across critical state institutions.

Analysts and intelligence assessments indicate the IRGC has systematically sidelined civilian bodies, consolidating control over military operations and diplomatic decision-making without meaningful institutional resistance.

Reports further suggest Vahidi’s inner circle has blocked pragmatic officials, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian, from pursuing flexible negotiations with the United States.

This divide reflects a widening split between hardline forces and pragmatic factions struggling to influence policy under tightening military oversight and diminishing political autonomy.

While Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian have intermittently supported diplomatic engagement, IRGC leadership continues enforcing a rigid posture that restricts negotiators.

Amid rising tensions, on April 24 the heads of the presidency, judiciary, and parliament issued a rare synchronized social media message to project regime unity.

However, analysts interpreted the move not as genuine cohesion but as a defensive "unity show" aimed at preventing a collapse of authority during crisis conditions.

The messaging followed reports that the IRGC effectively seized control of national strategy, sidelining civilian leaders while centralizing decisions within hardened military networks.