By Maryam Manzoori | 2024-09-10

The accuracy of the Iranian regime's most advanced missiles is significantly lower than previously believed, a detailed analysis by military experts has revealed.

In April, Iran fired an estimated 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel, according to the Israeli military. The Iron Dome defense system intercepted most of them, with help from US and allied forces.

Following the unprecedented attack, analysts from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies examined the strike on Israel's Nevatim air base, the Associated Press (AP) reported September 3.

"The April assault demonstrated some ability to strike Israel," James Martin Center research associate Sam Lair told AP. But "if I were the [Iranian] supreme leader, I would probably be a little disappointed," he added.

The imprecision of Iranian missiles "recasts their role," he said. "They're no longer as valuable for conducting conventional military operations. They may be more valuable simply as terror weapons."

Far from accurate

The April attack revealed that the Islamic Republic's claim of a 50-meter margin of error for its Emad missile, which is considered the most advanced missile in the possession of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is far from accurate.

The long-range Emad missile is 15.5 meters in length and weighs more than 17 tons, according to the Fars News Agency. It has a range of 1,700km and can carry a warhead weighing up to 750kg.

The missile is Iran's first long-range, liquid-fueled ballistic missile equipped with a guided warhead, allowing for control and guidance until impact, per Fars.

The majority of missiles in the regime's arsenal are short-range and solid-fueled, according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

The remnants of Iranian missiles that reached Israel during the April attack indicate that they were of both solid and liquid-fueled types, Taleblu told Pishtaz.

"The missiles fired by Iran on April 13 were older liquid-fueled types, and the longer range posed an additional challenge for the Iranian government," he said.

"Short-range missiles, under 1,000km, have higher precision, which increases the risk of short-range and accurate Iranian missiles being transferred to Iranian proxy groups, creating a ring of fire around Israel," he added.

Taleblu warned that the Iranian regime may attempt to leverage its proxy groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq to reduce the margin of error for intermediate and long-range missiles deployed against Israel.